Setting a Lottery Playing Goal Setting a Lottery Playing GoalThis page describes how to plan a playing strategy -- to get the most return on your playing cost.
Know Your Game's Prizes
Finding a Prize's 'Cost Ratio'
A Practical Example
A Note About 'Daily' Games
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Know Your Game's Prizes If you're a serious player, you've probably already given a lot of thought to the way you play. You know the odds, and you know your playing budget. You have decided that a win is worth the effort. To play effectively, you have to set your playing goal. Review your goal as you see it now. Is it an "all or nothing" aim at the Jackpot? Or, are you in search of smaller prizes that give you "easier" odds? The choice you make will determine the way you will play -- especially the way you'll use wheeling systems. Let's expand on this. If you are like most players, you have to stay within your playing budget. Suppose your budget allows you to play seven combinations in a Pick-6 game (your own budget might be more or less than this). If you're playing for the Jackpot, and want all of your numbers to go toward winning it, you can wheel no more than seven numbers. This is the most you can play in a Jackpot wheel, and still remain inside your budget. To win the Jackpot, you'll need to match six of your seven numbers with the game's winning numbers. On the other hand, suppose you're aiming for a different prize -- say, four winning numbers. With your same budget, you can now wheel 10 numbers -- and you'll need to match only five of the game's winners to win your prize. Example: Compare the two wheels in the example below. You can substitute your own numbers for the ones in this example.
Comparing the Wheels: If you play Wheel A and successfully match 6 of its 7 numbers, you'll have a Jackpot match. If you play Wheel B and match 6 of its 10 numbers, you will not necessarily have a Jackpot match -- it's possible, but not assured. However if you match 5 of Wheel B's 10 numbers, you will have a 4-number win. This is how the wheels differ -- in their likelihood of matching the game's winning numbers. It's much easier to match 5 winners out of your 10 numbers, than it is to match 6 out of 7. Both wheels have the same playing cost (seven combinations). In reality, your Jackpot chances are identical for the two wheels. For example, if your game is a Pick-6 with 49 numbers, both wheels have seven chances out of about 14 million to match the Jackpot numbers. The only distinction between the two wheels -- and the question you must answer, when you set your playing goal -- is whether you want assurance of the Jackpot within the field of numbers you play, or else you will accept a lower prize without that Jackpot assurance. Let's summarize. Your choice of a prize goal directly affects your choice of a wheeling system, as well as how many numbers you can play to remain within your budget. What a player needs is a way to measure the value of the game's prizes for playing. It's called the 'Cost Ratio' of the prizes. This is not the same as the cash amounts of the prizes. This is explored in more detail below. 
Finding a Prize's 'Cost Ratio' A prize's Cost Ratio is a way of measuring its playing value. The lower the Cost Ratio, the better the prize is for playing, in the long run. A prize's Cost Ratio is related to two factors -- the odds of winning that prize, and the amount of money you receive if you win it. It's easy to find the Cost Ratio for any prize in your game. Each prize's odds and average cash payout are printed on the back of your play slip, or they're available from your lottery office. Just divide the prize's 'cash payout' into the 'odds' -- that's your Cost Ratio. Example: Suppose it costs you one dollar to play your game. Compare the two prizes in the table below.
Comparing the Prizes: You can see the difference between 'odds' and 'Cost Ratio'. Prize A has more difficult chances of 1 in 1,000 -- but it has a Cost Ratio of just 10 to 1. Prize B has easier chances of 1 in 50 -- but its Cost Ratio is worse, at 25 to 1. Which prize has the best value? Without much luck on your side, you'll get back one dollar for every 10 you play for Prize A. With equal luck, you'll get back one dollar for every 25 you play for Prize B. Prize A has the better Cost Ratio. Playing for the prize with the 'easiest odds' alone does not ensure that you are managing your playing cost. You need to consider both factors about the prize -- its odds, and its prize amount. Those factors are expressed in its Cost Ratio. Here is the main point: If you're going to play steadily with the goal of someday winning a big prize in your game, you'll need to manage your playing budget to play for that length of time. What can you do if the prize with the best Cost Ratio happens to be the Jackpot? This is not a rare situation in Lotto games. For example, suppose your game's Jackpot is ten million dollars -- and your chances of matching it are about one in fourteen million. The prize's Cost Ratio (14M divided by 10M) is just 1.4 -- very low, and very attractive. It is likely to be the lowest ratio of any of the prizes offered in the game. How do you handle it? You could address the Jackpot prize with a wheeling system specifically designed for that prize -- like Wheel A in the first example above. However there is another way. You can address a lower prize -- with the 'next best' Cost Ratio -- using an appropriate wheeling system for that prize instead. Consider the effect of this kind of play. With the lower-prize wheel, you can still keep your playing cost within your budget, and at the same level that you would use if you employed a Jackpot wheel. The main point to remember is that your overall Jackpot chances are determined solely by the amount of different combinations you put into play, regardless of the wheeling system you have used. To Summarize: You do not sacrifice your Jackpot chances by addressing an attractive lower prize with an efficient wheeling system designed for that prize. You gain the advantage of managing your playing cost.
A Practical Example Here is a practical example. It's from the Florida 6/49 game -- but you can apply the principles to any game. In the Florida 6/49, the average payout for a second prize win (if you match 5 numbers) is about $1,400 -- and the chances of hitting it are about 1 in 54,000. The third prize (for matching 4 numbers) pays about $70 -- and the chances are about 1 in 1,000. Compare the two Florida prizes. The second prize's payout is 20 times better than the third prize -- but its odds are 54 times worse. The Cost Ratios tell the story -- for the second prize, it's 38 to 1; for the third prize, 14 to 1. The third prize is the better target in this game. If you're really out for a big prize, you'll probably want to go for it even if its Cost Ratio is not the best. On the other hand, if you're trying to keep your ongoing playing cost at a reasonable level, you'll do it better if you play a wheel that efficiently aims for the prize with the best Cost Ratio.
A Note About 'Daily' Games When you're considering the Cost Ratio of prizes in your games, you might want to check your local Pick-3 or Pick-4 'Daily' game if you have one. For any kind of Pick-3/4 prize you want to address, and for either Straight or Boxed wheeling, Daily prizes often give you the best Cost Ratios. For example, a Pick-3 game has Straight Jackpot chances of 1 in 1,000. Its prize payout is typically in the range of about $500. Its Cost Ratio is just 2 to 1 (1,000 divided by 500). This is lower (and better) than virtually all prizes in Lotto games. Your chances of one type of Pick-3 Boxed win are 1 in 333, and your prize for hitting it is typically about $167. Again the prize's Cost Ratio is just 2 to 1. Pick-4 games offer similar Cost Ratios in their prizes. Your chances for a Pick-4 Straight Jackpot are 1 in 10,000 -- with a typical prize of about $5,000. The Cost Ratio is 2 to 1 for that prize also. Similar Cost Ratios prevail for Pick-4 Boxed wins. The conclusion is that the Daily Pick-3/4 games offer better payback to the player, in the long run, than Lotto games do. Naturally your motivation may be different for either type of game -- and for each prize within a game. You may never join ranks with the 'rich and famous' by playing Pick-3/4 games -- spectacular fortunes and headlines are made by winners in the big Lotto games instead. But if you're a player on a budget, you should explore the Cost Ratios of all the prizes that you have options for playing in your games.
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